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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

2019-09-21 04:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 18.4, -110.1 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 15

2019-09-21 04:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 110.1W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster motion toward the north-northwest is expected overnight and Saturday, followed by a northwestward motion through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday and become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2019-09-21 04:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 210240 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 39 26(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 110W 50 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 72 6(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 15

2019-09-21 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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