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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-20 16:56:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-20 16:55:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 201455 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Microwave imagery since the last advisory indicates that Mario has been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection is mostly displaced to the southwest of the cyclone's surface center. This may be a sign that northeasterly shear has again increased across Mario, at least for the moment. The intensity estimate is still 55 kt based on Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, but objective values are lower. Almost no change was made to the NHC intensity forecast. SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that substantial northeasterly shear will continue to affect Mario for the next couple of days, and by the time the shear relaxes early next week, the cyclone will have reached much cooler waters. Given that Mario is in better shape than it was a day ago, some slight strengthening is still shown in the short-term forecast, but only the GFS explicitly forecasts Mario to reach hurricane strength. Nearly all of the dynamical models forecast that Mario will lose its convection and become a remnant low by 96 h or sooner, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. The track forecast is very low confidence, evidenced by the fact that the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both outliers from their respective ensembles run at the same time. In fact, both models are outside of their associated guidance envelope and show Mario getting very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how much Mario and Lorena will interact during the next 2 or 3 days. The NHC forecast continues to keep the two systems separate, showing both systems moving generally northwestward in tandem at 48 h and beyond. However, given the close proximity of the two cyclones, a merger can not be ruled out. The NHC forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble envelopes. Significant changes may still be required to the track forecast later today, and there is still a chance that Mario could directly affect portions of the Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.9N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-09-20 16:55:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201455 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 3 54(57) 6(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 110W 50 X 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 26 41(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15) 1(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-20 16:54:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 17.9, -110.1 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 13
2019-09-20 16:54:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 201454 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 110.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, however confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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