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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-09-19 10:50:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-19 04:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:54:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:54:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-19 04:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190253 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Mario's convection had mostly collapsed around the time of the previous advisory. However, a 1911 UTC GPM microwave pass indicated that the storm still had a tight circulation with a well-defined center, and a new burst of convection began around 2300 UTC. There is a wide range of intensity estimates with 45 kt from TAFB at the low end and 65 kt from the UW-CIMSS at the high end. Given this large spread, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt in the middle of the range. Mario's future still depends on Lorena. At the moment, the storm is moving northwestward, or 320/9 kt. The track models continue to show varying degrees of interaction between Mario and Lorena. On the one hand, the GFS and HWRF models show the smaller Mario becoming enveloped into Lorena's larger circulation, making a backwards-S track as it moves generally northward. On the other hand, since the ECMWF dissipates Lorena inland over Mexico, it allows Mario to move northward or northwestward unabated with not much wiggle in its track. Visible satellite images showed quite a bit of southwesterly flow feeding from near Mario toward Lorena, which leads me to believe that there will at least be some interaction between the two cyclones. Given that, the NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward a bit, but not as far to the east as some of the consensus aids or the HCCA model. Intensity-wise, it appears that Mario will get into a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24-36 hours, which should foster some strengthening. Mario is forecast to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and this scenario lies between the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA model. Weakening is likely to occur after 48 hours due to an increase in easterly shear, lower oceanic heat content, and possible interaction with Lorena. Because of this possible interaction, confidence in both the NHC track and intensity forecasts is lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-19 04:52:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 780 FOPZ14 KNHC 190252 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 11(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 23(53) 11(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 11(26) 4(30) 1(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 20(26) 10(36) 2(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-19 04:52:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 15.4, -112.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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