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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-10 19:34:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 17:34:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 15:40:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-10 19:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 18.6, -123.0 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 45A
2018-10-10 19:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101733 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 45A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 123.0W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on later tonight or Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 123.0 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico late Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-10 16:47:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 14:47:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 14:47:31 GMT
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sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 45
2018-10-10 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101445 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The cloud pattern associated with Sergio has not changed very much, and it consists of a cyclonically curved convective band surrounding a large and ragged eye feature. Since the convection is weaker, the Dvorak estimates suggest that winds are gradually decreasing, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is still moving over relatively warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Both of these factors will become unfavorable soon, and consequently, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much faster. Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 2 days, but winds along the coast are anticipated to increase earlier. Track models are in very good agreement, and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.4N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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