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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 53
2018-10-12 17:45:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121545 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 53...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Corrected to add the word hours in the first paragraph of Discussion and Outlook ...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today. Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of Cortez during the next several hours and then move over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread northeastward this morning. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-12 16:58:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 14:58:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 14:58:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 53
2018-10-12 16:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 The center of Sergio crossed the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and is now moving over the Sea of Cortez. The convection has weakened and is displaced to the north of the still vigorous low-level circulation. Based on observations from the automatic stations of the Mexican Navy, the initial intensity is 35 kt. The effect of the high terrain and shear will result in additional weakening, and Sergio will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon and dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. Sergio is moving toward the northeast at 20 kt embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This track should continue until dissipation in about 12 hours over Northwestern Mexico. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, portions of the desert southwest and the U.S. Southern Plains through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53
2018-10-12 16:56:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121456 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HERMOSILLO 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BAHIA KINO 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) HUATABAMPO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-12 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 the center of Sergio was located near 27.5, -111.9 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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