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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 35
2018-10-08 04:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080234 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 300SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-07 23:01:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LARGE EYE OF SERGIO SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Sergio was located near 14.7, -127.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 34
2018-10-07 23:01:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072100 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 34...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Corrected to change a word in the headline ...LARGE EYE OF SERGIO SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 127.5W ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 127.5 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). Sergio is expected to slow down and turn northward by tonight, and then turn northeastward on Monday. A faster northeastward motion is anticipated by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next few days, but Sergio is forecast to remain a hurricane into mid-week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-07 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 20:34:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 20:34:51 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 34
2018-10-07 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Sergio has maintained its annular-like structure over the past several hours. The eye has expanded to nearly 90 n mi across, and there is little evidence of convective banding in multiple microwave overpasses since 1200 UTC this morning. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased since the last advisory, however the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are a little higher, so the initial intensity has been lowered only slightly to 85 kt. Very little change has been made to the official track or intensity forecasts. Sergio is still forecast to slow down and turn northward over the next day or so. In fact, the 12 h forecast point is practically already inside the eye of the hurricane. By Tuesday, one or more shortwave troughs working southward along the western side of a deep-layer trough centered over the southwestern U.S. should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward. Interestingly, although the various global models solutions have changed with this forecast cycle, the consensus has been fairly consistent, so only minor adjustments were required to the official track forecast. Slow weakening is still anticipated over the next few days as Sergio possibly maintains its annular structure. By mid-week, Sergio will be moving over progressively cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is likely. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is near the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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