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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 52

2018-10-12 10:52:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120852 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 113.8W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 113.8W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics

2018-10-12 07:47:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 05:47:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 03:40:22 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-12 07:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST... As of 11:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Sergio was located near 25.3, -114.8 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 51A

2018-10-12 07:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120545 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 51A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland northwestern Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin later tonight, but Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression before reaching Sonora. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from this weekend into Monday. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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