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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50

2018-10-11 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 112036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 26 35(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) P ABREOJOS 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P ABREOJOS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HERMOSILLO 34 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HERMOSILLO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BAHIA KINO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GUAYMAS 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 25N 115W 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-11 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Sergio was located near 23.5, -116.7 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 50

2018-10-11 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 116.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this track is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but Sergio is over cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 50

2018-10-11 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 112035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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