je.st
news
Tag: lidia
Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-08-31 10:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 08:53:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 09:29:47 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
lidia
Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-08-31 10:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310848 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Scatterometer data and microwave images indicate that Lidia has a deformed circulation, with what appears to be two lobes of vorticity rotating around a common center. The unmanned NASA Global Hawk flew very near the centroid of the circulation last evening and provided a better estimate of Lidia's central pressure (about 998 mb at the time). In addition, a dropsonde released to the east of the center measured a mean boundary layer wind of 45 kt, which equates to a surface wind a little over 35 kt. Assuming the dropsonde did not sample the highest winds, and given that deep convection has become more organized into two distinct clusters since that time, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. Lidia is moving north-northwestward, or 335/7 kt, between a mid-level high centered over central Mexico and a cyclonic gyre located to the west over the Pacific. This motion should continue for the next 36 hours, but then after that time, high pressure over the southwestern United States should force Lidia to turn northwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 through 5. Most of the spread in the track models is related to Lidia's forward speed, and there is a notable disparity between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF models. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to better match the speeds of the TVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Even though Lidia is in an environment of low shear and over very warm waters, the storm's large size and lack of an inner core are likely to prevent fast strengthening before the center reaches the Baja California peninsula. Since the ambient environment is favorable, the NHC forecast continues to call for modest strengthening and still shows a peak intensity of 55 kt in about 24 hours, which is in line with HCCA. Weakening is expected after 24 hours due to the center moving up the spine of the Baja California peninsula, but tropical-storm-force winds are likely to spread up the Gulf of California well east of the center. Lidia is forecast to become a remnant low by day 3 due to its interaction with land, and further weakening is anticipated over the cold waters of the California Current on days 4 and 5. Lidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are already occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant hazard over these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 22.3N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 25.1N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/0600Z 26.7N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/0600Z 29.2N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z 30.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z 30.5N 121.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-08-31 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LIDIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE DAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 the center of Lidia was located near 21.3, -109.4 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
lidia
Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 7
2017-08-31 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 310848 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...LIDIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE DAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 109.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito, north of San Evaristo to Loreto, and north of Huatabampito to Guaymas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos, north of Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, and north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto San Andresito to Loreto * mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur north of Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos * Baja California Sur north of Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista * mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lidia is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through midday Friday. A turn toward the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon, and it will move over the peninsula Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next 24 hours or so before Lidia's center reaches the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, southern Michoacan, southern Sonora, and central Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. These rains are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in Baja California Sur later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in mainland Mexico starting later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-08-31 10:48:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 310848 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 16(23) 1(24) X(24) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 8(35) X(35) 1(36) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 78 16(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 13 32(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 79 16(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SAN JOSE CABO 50 8 32(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 16 57(73) 14(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) LA PAZ 50 X 22(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) LA PAZ 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 1 6( 7) 36(43) 24(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) LORETO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LORETO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 17(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 13(15) 11(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CULIACAN 34 5 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Sites : [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] next »