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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-06-21 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211447 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45 kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased over the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects on the convection, little change in strength is expected before landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just after 72 h. While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 27.6N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.5N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.3N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 34.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-21 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 the center of Cindy was located near 27.6, -92.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 8
2017-06-21 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211446 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-06-21 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 211446 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 1500 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 18 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MORGAN CITY LA 34 34 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 10 21(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 34 11(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NEW IBERIA LA 34 39 8(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 8(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FORT POLK LA 34 13 36(49) 8(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) FORT POLK LA 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 35 39(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMERON LA 34 55 30(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) CAMERON LA 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JASPER TX 34 10 35(45) 7(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) JASPER TX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 17 31(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 30 38(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 21 10(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HOUSTON TX 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 950W 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 31 19(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-06-21 16:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 211446 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 1500 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 92.6W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 92.6W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.5N 93.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.3N 93.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...90NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 92.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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