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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 5A
2017-06-21 01:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...CINDY STILL MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 90.3W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Cindy has been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight and spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cindy Graphics
2017-06-20 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 20:38:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 21:29:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-06-20 22:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 The low-level circulation of Cindy is exposed well to the southwest of the main convective band that extends along most of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Data from the aircraft and marine observations indicate two areas of high winds. The first is located in the convection about 150 n mi northeast of the center, and the second is in a band about 60 n mi northwest of the center. Based on a blend of the aircraft and surface data, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt for this advisory. The central pressure of 999 mb is based on extrapolated data from the aircraft. Only limited strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours as strong shear continues over the system, with gradual weakening expected as the system approaches the coast and moves inland. The new NHC forecast is similar to much of the guidance and the intensity consensus. The circulation has been stationary as it has organized over the past 6 hours, but the model guidance suggests that a northwest motion should resume soon as Cindy interacts with an upper-level low situated to its northwest. This motion should continue through 24 hours, and then Cindy will recurve around the western edge of the subtropical ridge as it moves inland in 36 to 48 hours, and accelerates into the mid-latitude westerlies over the lower Mississippi Valley. The new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the left, following the latest trend in the guidance, and lies near or a little to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 25.7N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 26.6N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 27.4N 92.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 30.8N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 35.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-20 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CINDY MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 the center of Cindy was located near 25.7, -90.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 5
2017-06-20 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...CINDY MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 90.6W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to San Luis Pass, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 90.6 West. Cindy has been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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