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Tropical Storm KAREN Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-10-05 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2013 08:59:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-05 10:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050847 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 KAREN REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 80 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE WINDS OF AT BEST 35 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THERE ARE RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW REPRESENTATIVE THESE WINDS ARE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. KAREN JOGGED A BIT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 330/7. THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE KAREN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A FINAL LANDFALL IN ALABAMA OR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE ARE SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE ONE USED IN THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...IS THAT KAREN REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL. ONE ALTERNATIVE IS POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO RE-DEVELOPED CENTRAL CONVECTION. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN...THEY ARE FOR THE MOST PART SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS KAREN APPROACHES LANDFALL. A SECOND ALTERNATIVE IS THAT KAREN WEAKENS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO EITHER LACK OF CONVECTION OR THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER LANDFALL...KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 27.1N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 27.6N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 28.4N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 31.2N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0600Z 35.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-10-05 10:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 050847 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 6 11 18 35 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 37 37 40 36 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 65 55 50 40 28 NA NA HURRICANE X 2 2 2 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 2 2 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 2 7( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BURAS LA 34 7 18(25) 12(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 7 11(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 4 10(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 910W 34 53 8(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-05 10:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of KAREN was located near 27.1, -91.3 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 9
2013-10-05 10:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050847 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 ...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 91.3W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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