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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-23 19:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS THE CENTER OF KARL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS BERMUDA... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of KARL was located near 29.1, -65.3 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-23 19:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 17:43:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 15:05:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 37
2016-09-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231445 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 A NOAA P3 flight continued to fly through Karl for a few hours after the release of the last advisory, and while it didn't find winds higher than 50 kt, dropsonde data did indicate that the minimum pressure had fallen to 992 mb. Microwave data indicate that Karl is still under the influence of 15-20 kt of south- southeasterly shear. The convective pattern has continued to improve, however, with an elongated curved band extending to the northeast and east of the central convection. With sea surface temperatures running between 29-30C for the next 24 hours and vertical shear expected to decrease slightly, it seems likely that Karl will continue to strengthen during the next couple of days. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement on the intensification trend, and in fact most of the models are showing Karl reaching a strength between 60 and 65 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, the updated official forecast now shows Karl reaching hurricane intensity at that time. Continued strengthening is likely after that time, and the peak intensity shown in the official forecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast at 48 hours, which is in line with the latest guidance. Karl will be in the process of extratropical transition at that time, but the global models fields only agree that the transition will be complete by 72 hours. Karl should then be absorbed by a larger extratropical low by day 4. The last fix from the NOAA P3 was a little east of the previous Air Force fixes, so it's possible that Karl's center has begun to move east of due north. Until we know for sure, the initial motion is set to be northward, or 360/10 kt. Karl is located near the western edge of the subtropical ridge axis, and it should become increasingly embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies during the next couple of days. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating within the next 24 hours, with the motion becoming even faster by 72 hours. The spread among the track models is extremely tight on this forecast cycle, and very little change was required from the previous advisory. The new official forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. Since Karl is now forecast to become a hurricane by 24 hours while the center is passing just to the east of Bermuda, the Bermuda Weather Service has elected to issue a Hurricane Watch for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 28.6N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 30.2N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 34.9N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 38.9N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 50.7N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Sullivan/Gerhardt/Schichtel
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2016-09-23 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 231444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 19 51(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BERMUDA 50 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BERMUDA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG/SULLIVAN/GERHARDT/SCHICHTEL
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-23 16:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of KARL was located near 28.6, -64.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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