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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 37
2016-09-23 16:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...KARL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 64.8W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karl is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Sullivan/Gerhardt/Schichtel
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 37
2016-09-23 16:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231444 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.2N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.9N 57.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 50.7N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 240SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 64.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/SULLIVAN/GERHARDT/SCHICHTEL
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-23 13:53:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 11:53:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 09:05:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-23 13:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED... ...FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of KARL was located near 28.1, -64.8 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 36A
2016-09-23 13:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231152 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 800 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...KARL CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED... ...FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 64.8W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karl has slowed down recently, and is now moving toward the north-northwest at around 9 mph (15 km/h). An increase in forward speed and a turn toward the north are expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by tonight or early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl could be near hurricane strength as it passes near or east of Bermuda tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) primarily to the north of the center. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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