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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 36
2016-09-23 10:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230852 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 The cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours ago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still located on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is more symmetric, and the outflow is better defined. Tonight's upward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated minimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous reports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb. A NOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level wind of 61 kt. These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt. Karl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of days while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear. After that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic mid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a much larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone in the short term based on the initial intensity and the current organization trend. Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of 325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to turn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl is forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a sharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The new track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer to Bermuda in about 24 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tightly packed model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 27.9N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 31.5N 64.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 37.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 48.0N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-23 10:51:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 08:51:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 08:50:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2016-09-23 10:50:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 230850 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 6 68(74) 6(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BERMUDA 50 X 22(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BERMUDA 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-23 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CORE OF KARL FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of KARL was located near 27.9, -64.8 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 36
2016-09-23 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...CORE OF KARL FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 64.8W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected today, and a turn to the northeast is anticipated by tonight or early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday. Data from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl could become a hurricane on Saturday as it moves away from Bermuda. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) primarily to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by reconnaissance aircraft was 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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