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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-23 01:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 23:36:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 21:05:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-23 01:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT KARL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22 the center of KARL was located near 26.2, -63.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 34A
2016-09-23 01:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222333 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 800 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT KARL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 63.6W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and is expected to turn northward on Friday and northeastward on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl is expected to pass near or to the east of Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the north of the center. NOAA buoy 41049, located northeast of the center, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from the the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Friday evening. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-22 23:09:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 20:56:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 21:05:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 34
2016-09-22 22:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222051 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been flying in Karl, and the data indicate that the cyclone has re-intensified to a 35-kt tropical storm. The maximum 850-mb flight-level wind so far is 45 kt, which equates to an intensity of about 35 kt. This is also supported by SFMR observations. In addition, dropsonde data suggest lowering the central pressure down to 1005 mb. Combined with the aircraft data, scatterometer winds within the convective bands indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend 120 nm to the north of the center of circulation. Karl has continued its northwestward progression at 305 degrees with a speed of 14 knots. The synoptic pattern around this system features a mid-level high off to its northeast while a mid-level low is positioned to the north of Puerto Rico. Karl is forecast to move around the western extent of the anticyclone which will make it turn more northward by 36 hours before accelerating northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies by 48 hours. Based on the adjustment of the initial position provided by the aircraft, the track guidance has shifted a bit left of the positions indicated in the previous advisory. As a result, the updated official forecast has been adjusted westward during the first 48 hours, lying a bit closer to the GFS/GEFS mean clustering while giving some credit to the TVCN multi-model consensus. Later in the period, the ECMWF solution was deemed too slow and was not weighted as heavily at that point. Karl lies right along the edge of a zone of higher shear to its west, and the various analyses are showing about 15 to 20 knots of southeasterly shear over the system. The global models continue to show the shear decreasing at least some during the next couple of days, but there are differences. For example, GFS fields show the shear decreasing to around 5 knots or less by Friday morning through evening, while the ECMWF only shows the shear decreasing to around 10 knots during the same period. This continues to make the intensity forecast difficult. At this point, the intensity forecast was generally left unchanged which allows Karl to become a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. Based on the latest forecast, the western edge of the tropical-storm-force wind field could begin to affect Bermuda during the next 24 to 36 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service has therefore issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 25.5N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 26.8N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 28.8N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 30.8N 64.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 32.7N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 39.7N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 49.0N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Campbell/Rubin-Oster/Berg
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