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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-25 10:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 08:42:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 08:36:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 44
2016-09-25 10:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250840 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016 Karl continues to produce a large mass of cold-topped convection sheared to the northeast of the low-level center. Some of the cloud tops are as cold as -83 deg C, which is unusual for that far north. Earlier NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft dropsondes measured surface winds as high as 54 kt, and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT are 60 kt and 57 kt, respectively. Based on these data, and given that Karl is now moving at a forward speed of at least 40 kt, the initial intensity has been conservatively increased to 60 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 055/40 kt. Karl should continue to move northeastward at 45-50 kt ahead of a broad deep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in about 36 hours. The new official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope, close to the consensus model TVCN and the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. Karl is currently located over a ridge of anomalously warm water with SSTs of 27C to 27.5C, which likely explains the unusually deep and cold-topped convection associated with the cyclone. Karl has about another 6 hours or so over SSTs greater than 26C, which could allow the cyclone to strengthen into a tropical hurricane before it reaches much colder waters. By 12 hours and beyond, Karl will be moving over sea-surface temperatures colder than 20C north of 40N latitude, which will result in the cyclone losing its deep convection and tropical characteristics. However, interaction with the aforementioned deep-layer trough and associated baroclinic energy should help Karl to strengthen into a powerful post-tropical low pressure system possessing hurricane-force winds. By 36 hours, the system should be absorbed into a larger extratropical low to its northwest. The new NHC intensity forecast and wind radii are based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 37.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 41.3N 46.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/0600Z 48.3N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2016-09-25 10:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 250837 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-25 10:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25 the center of KARL was located near 37.5, -53.5 with movement NE at 46 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 44
2016-09-25 10:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016 ...KARL RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 53.5W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 53.5 West. Karl is moving toward the northeast near 46 mph (74 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Karl is expected to be at hurricane intensity when it becomes a post-tropical cyclone later today. The post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a large extratropical low tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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