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Tropical Depression KARL Public Advisory Number 29

2016-09-21 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 ...KARL REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 57.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Karl. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 57.8 West. Karl is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by this evening, and that motion should continue through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but some strengthening is expected on Thursday. Dropsonde data from the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Gallina/Veenhuis

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Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Discussion Number 29

2016-09-21 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211443 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 A research flight by the NOAA P3 aircraft earlier this morning had a difficult time closing off a well-defined center of circulation. However, we are able to track what looks like a reasonable center on early-morning visible satellite imagery. Based on the latest satellite images and the P3 data, it does appear that the center has wobbled toward the northwest and slowed down a bit. However, the longer-term 12-hour motion estimate is still west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. Most of the deep convection remains displaced well to the east of the center, but new convection has recently been developing just to the north and northwest. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on earlier reports from the NOAA P3 and a 1254 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass. Karl remains located to the south and southwest of a mid-level high. However, the depression is expected to turn northwestward later today when it begins to move between the high and a mid- to upper-level low located near the Carolina coast. Karl should then turn northward and then accelerate toward the northeast from 48 hours and beyond once it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains in generally good agreement on this scenario, and the main differences appear toward the end of the forecast period when the ECMWF remains much slower than the other models. The new official forecast remains very close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, which did not require any significant changes from the previous advisory. The distance between Karl and the upper-level low that has been adversely affecting it during the past couple of days appears to be increasing a bit, and the shear vector over the cyclone has become south-southeasterly. Although the global models continue to indicate that the shear will decrease over the next few days, they do not agree on the direction of that shear. In addition, the models do not agree on how much moisture there will be in the mid-level environment around the cyclone. As a result, the intensity forecast is complicated, and confidence is not very high. For continuity's sake, the updated intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast during the first 3 days, and then it is a little lower at days 4 and 5 based on the latest guidance. Karl is expected to become extratropical by day 5, which agrees with the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.8N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 22.1N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 24.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 25.7N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 27.2N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 31.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 36.0N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 44.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg/Gallina/Veenhuis

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Tropical Depression KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2016-09-21 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 211443 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) X(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG/GALLINA/VEENHUIS

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Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Advisory Number 29

2016-09-21 16:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 57.8W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 57.8W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 63.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.2N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.0N 62.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 44.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/GALLINA/VEENHUIS

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