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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 44
2016-09-25 10:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 53.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 53.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 41.3N 46.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 48.3N 35.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 270SE 150SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 53.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-25 05:09:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 02:45:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 03:05:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 43
2016-09-25 04:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250242 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 Karl continues to produce a large area of cold-topped convection to the northeast of the center. However, data from the NOAA P-3, NOAA G-IV, and the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the circulation is losing definition as the cyclone accelerates toward the northeast. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a combination of dropsonde, flight level, and SFMR winds from the three planes, and the central pressure of 992 mb is based on data from a Global Hawk dropsonde. While Karl is expected to become post tropical by 24 hours, it should intensify to a hurricane-force system as it does so, and this is shown in the intensity forecast. By 36 hours, the system should be absorbed into a larger extratropical low to its northwest. The initial motion estimate is now 055/25. Karl should continue to accelerate on a general northeastward heading ahead of a broad deep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed, and the forward speed is expected to be near 50 kt by 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 35.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 38.2N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 44.6N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2016-09-25 04:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 250241 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-25 04:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of KARL was located near 35.0, -58.0 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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