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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 41
2016-09-24 16:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 ...CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON BERMUDA AS KARL HEADS FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 62.7W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 62.7 West. Karl is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A northeastward motion at a much faster forward speed is expected during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Karl will continue moving quickly away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl is expected to reach hurricane intensity on Sunday and remain at hurricane strength when it becomes a post-tropical cyclone Sunday night. Karl is forecast to be absorbed by an extratropical cyclone early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible on Bermuda today. SURF: Swells generated by Karl will continue affecting Bermuda through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2016-09-24 16:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 241432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 41
2016-09-24 16:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241431 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 62.7W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 190SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 62.7W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 63.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.8N 58.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N 50.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 130SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 210SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 100SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 180SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 62.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-24 13:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 11:32:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 09:05:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-24 13:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF KARL STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of KARL was located near 32.2, -63.7 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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