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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 40A
2016-09-24 13:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241131 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 800 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 ...CENTER OF KARL STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 63.7W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 63.7 West. Karl is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a steady increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Karl will continue to move away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Karl is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over Bermuda through this morning. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through today. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-24 11:09:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 08:56:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 09:05:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 40
2016-09-24 11:00:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240859 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that Karl has made the much anticipated turn toward the northeast, and that the center has also reached its closest point of approach to Bermuda. The strongest 825-mb flight-level wind measured thus far has been 66 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind measured has been 49 kt. The central pressure of 994 mb is based on a recent dropsonde report. An earlier dropsonde report indicated that the flight-level center was tilted to the northeast of the surface center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 035/15 kt. Karl is now coming under the influence of deep southwesterly steering flow in advance of an approaching strong mid-latitude trough and surface cold front. This flow pattern should keep Karl moving northeastward away from Bermuda and steadily increase its forward speed to 40-45 kt by 36-48 hours. The new forecast track is similar to but slightly to the left of the of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Karl appears to have entrained some dry air in the mid- and low- levels of the atmosphere based on reconnaissance data. However, the cyclone is forecast to remain over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 24 hours or so within an environment of moderate vertical wind shear. This should allow Karl to strengthen to a hurricane in about 24-36 hours. After that, the cyclone is forecast to undergo extratropical transition as it merges with the cold front, and this should be complete by 48 hours, if not sooner. The cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 31.7N 64.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 33.5N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 36.7N 54.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 41.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 47.6N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2016-09-24 10:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 240856 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BERMUDA 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-24 10:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF KARL PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of KARL was located near 31.7, -64.3 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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