je.st
news
Tag: karl
Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-24 05:09:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 02:57:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 03:05:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 39
2016-09-24 04:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240252 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 A few hours ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported flight-level winds of 71 kt at 7800 ft about 30 n mi to the southwest of the center, along with SFMR surface wind estimates of near 55 kt. The minimum central pressure at the time was near 990 mb. Since then, the cyclone has gotten better organized, with radar data from Bermuda showing a strong convective band west and northwest of the center. One caveat to the increased organization is that the center apparent in both radar and microwave imagery may be a little to the northwest of the surface center. Based on the earlier aircraft data, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt, and this could be a little conservative. Karl is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures of between 29-30C for the next 12-24 hours or so in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear. This should allow the cyclone to strengthen to a hurricane in about 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should undergo extratropical transition as it merges with the cold front, and this should be complete by 48 hours. The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, but it lies a little below the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The initial motion is 020/11. Karl is about to enter strong southwesterly flow in advance of a deep-layer trough and associated surface cold front moving eastward from the northeastern United States. This should result in a turn toward the northeast during the next several hours and an increase in forward speed. The new track forecast has changed little from the previous forecast, and calls for Karl to make its closest approach to Bermuda during the next 12 hours and then move rapidly away from the island. Overall, the forecast track is near the center of the tightly clustered guidance. The wind radii have been revised based on a recent scatterometer overpass and input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 30.8N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 32.5N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 35.5N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 39.5N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 45.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
karl
Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2016-09-24 04:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 240252 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BERMUDA 50 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-24 04:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT KARL IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of KARL was located near 30.8, -65.1 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 39
2016-09-24 04:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ..CENTER OF KARL MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 65.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later tonight, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or southeast of Bermuda during the next 12 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Karl is forecast to reach hurricane intensity on Saturday and then become post-tropical on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across Bermuda and will continue through Saturday morning. Hurricane conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight and early Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] next »