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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-06-16 10:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160848 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Bill has changed little in organization on satellite images over the past several hours. Most of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle. Radar data show some banding features over the southern portion of the circulation. Surface observations over the western Gulf of Mexico suggest that the intensity remains near 45 kt. Since there is little time remaining before the center reaches the coast, no significant increase in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will commence later today after the center moves inland over Texas. There are some differences in the evolution of the cyclone over the U.S. in the global models over the next few days. The official forecast shows the circulation dissipating within 5 days, which is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF predictions. The initial motion estimate, 310/11, has changed little from the previous advisory. Bill should be steered mainly by the flow around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. Thereafter, mid-level westerlies should cause Bill's remnant low to turn northeastward to east-northeastward. Most of the dynamical track models are in good agreement, and the official forecast is closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Given that Bill has a broad circulation, one should not focus on the exact track, since strong winds and heavy rains are occurring well away from the center. To reiterate, the main hazard from Bill should be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 29.0N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 30.6N 97.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 34.5N 96.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z 36.3N 94.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0600Z 39.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm BILL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-06-16 10:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 160846 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HOUSTON TX 34 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) AUSTIN TX 34 6 13(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 56 7(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PORT O CONNOR 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm BILL (AT2/AL022015)
2015-06-16 10:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of BILL was located near 27.9, -95.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 2
2015-06-16 10:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 95.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 95.7 West. Bill is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning area along the Texas coast later this morning and move inland over south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland later today, and Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area in a few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-06-16 10:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160845 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.0N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.6N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 96.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.3N 94.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 39.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 95.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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