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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-07-10 16:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The convective structure of Eugene is losing organization and the ragged eye is no longer apparent in the shortwave infrared imagery. However, an 0952Z AMSR2 and 1311Z GMI microwave passes still indicated a well-defined eye in the 37 and 89 GHz frequencies. Moreover, these images suggest about a 20 nm S-N tilt between the near-surface center and the mid-level center apparent in the geostationary imagery. This is consistent with the 15 kt of southerly vertical shear diagnosed by CIMSS. The intensity is reduced to 75 kt, from a blend of the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates and the objective ADT value. Eugene should move perpendicular across the large SST gradient during the next two days and reach 22C water on Wednesday. This along with the dry air that has been advecting toward the center of the hurricane should cause steady - if not rapid - weakening. It is anticipated that Eugene will lose deep convection in about two days and become a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is slightly lower than the previous advisory. Eugene is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, primarily being steered by a large mid-level ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. As Eugene loses its deep convection in a couple days, it should be advected along in the low-level tradewinds until dissipation in about five or six days. The official track forecast is based upon the variable consensus method - TVCN - and is slightly north of the previous advisory. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.0N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.9N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 26.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 27.9N 123.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Eugene Graphics
2017-07-10 10:56:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Jul 2017 08:56:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Jul 2017 09:23:54 GMT
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-07-10 10:50:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100850 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Eugene's structure has changed during the past 6-12 hours, as the hurricane no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery. Microwave data and the derived MIMIC product from UW-CIMSS seem to suggest that dry air penetrated into the southern portion of Eugene's circulation and eroded the eyewall. In addition, center fixes off of ASCAT data indicate that the low-level center is displaced to the south of the mid-level rotation noted in geostationary satellite imagery, indicative of some unforeseen southerly shear. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased slightly from six hours ago, and a blend of the various numbers supports an initial intensity of 85 kt. Eugene will remain over water warmer than 26C for another 12 hours or so, and its intensity will either be steady or decrease slowly during that time. More pronounced weakening is anticipated after 12 hours when the circulation moves over much colder water, and Eugene will likely weaken to a tropical storm by tonight and then degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night. The updated NHC intensity forecast is fairly close to the ICON intensity consensus and tries to maintain as much continuity as possible with the previous forecast. However, it should be noted that HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble, both of which have performed well with Eugene, indicate a faster weakening rate than that shown by the official forecast. A weakness in the subtropical ridge located off the northern Baja California peninsula coast is causing Eugene to move northwestward with an initial motion of 320/10 kt. Even as Eugene weakens, low-level troughing near the California coast should maintain a northwestward or even north-northwestward track but at a slower forward speed through most of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the only notable change in the NHC official forecast is a northeastward shift in the track during the remnant low stage compared to the previous forecast. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.3N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.7N 118.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 22.1N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 23.3N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 25.5N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 27.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 28.5N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-07-10 10:49:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100849 PWSEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 2 28(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-10 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 the center of Eugene was located near 18.1, -116.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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