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Hurricane Eugene Graphics
2017-07-09 10:47:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Jul 2017 08:47:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Jul 2017 08:47:38 GMT
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-09 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090842 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 Although it hasn't cleared out entirely, an eye has persisted in infrared satellite imagery since the last advisory, and cloud tops colder than -70C have at times completely encircled the eye. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77 kt and T5.0/90 kt, respectively, at 0600 UTC, and an average of these numbers was mirrored by an objective ADT estimate of T4.8/85 kt. Eugene's rapid intensification phase continues, and the hurricane is now estimated to be category 2 with 85-kt winds. Eugene continues on a northwestward trajectory with an initial motion of 325/7 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging is expected to remain anchored over the western United States for a few more days, while a progressive shortwave trough approaches the coast of California. This pattern should keep Eugene on a northwestward path for the entire five-day forecast period, with a faster forward speed anticipated from 12-36 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, especially through 72 hours, and the NHC official forecast has been nudged westward toward the various consensus models. By the end of the forecast period, the official forecast favors the weaker, westward-leaning GFS and ECMWF models. Eugene has blown through all prior intensity guidance, so it's a little difficult to know how long this period of rapid intensification will last. The hurricane is expected to remain in a low-shear environment for much of the forecast period, and it will continue to traverse waters warmer than 26C for another 24-36 hours. Therefore, continued strengthening is likely, and Eugene could attain major hurricane intensity before it reaches colder water. The new NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward and continues to be at the upper bound of the intensity models, closest to the SHIPS guidance through 36 hours. Weakening should be rather fast after 36 hours as Eugene moves over quickly decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will cease producing deep convection by 96 hours. At that point in the forecast Eugene is expected to be a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.3N 121.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 26.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-07-09 10:42:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090841 PWSEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 15 51(66) 2(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 115W 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 2 12(14) 11(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 34(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) X(22) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-09 10:41:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES WITH EUGENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 the center of Eugene was located near 15.2, -114.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Eugene Public Advisory Number 7
2017-07-09 10:41:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES WITH EUGENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 114.1W ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eugene was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 114.1 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional strengthening is likely during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eugene is expected to weaken by Monday when it moves over colder water. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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