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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-08 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 Eugene's convective pattern has continued to improve since the previous advisory, with a pronounced band of cold-topped convection now wrapping more than halfway around the center. An ASCAT-A pass at 0432Z indicated peak winds of 37 kt north of the center, but the northeastern quadrant was missed where stronger winds could be occurring. The initial intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory based on consensus T2.5/35 estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T2.7/39 kt. The initial motion remains 315/08 kt. There is no significant change to previous forecast track or reasoning. Eugene is expected to continue moving around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward across central and northern Mexico for the next 36-48 hours, and afterwards move into a weakness that is is forecast to develop in the ridge well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so only minor along-track speed changes were required. The aforementioned ASCAT pass indicates that the inner-core wind field of Eugene has become better defined and that the radius of maximum winds has also contracted down to about 30 n mi. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this now smaller RMW, in conjunction with a nearly ideal environment, would typically support rapid intensification. However, AMSU microwave and new GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicate that a pronounced tongue of dry air has penetrated into the southwestern quadrant, temporarily disrupting the development of inner-core convection. But should the dry air mix out during the next 12 h or so, then rapid strengthening is still a distinct possibility before Eugene reaches colder water shortly after the 36-h period. Beyond that time, the cyclone will be moving over muh colder SSTs ranging from 21-24 deg C, which should induce rapid weakening despite the low vertical wind shear conditions that will exist throughout the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.9N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 13.7N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 14.9N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.4N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.9N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 20.5N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 22.9N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/0600Z 25.1N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-07-08 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 24(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 5 55(60) 17(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 115W 50 X 13(13) 23(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 7(44) X(44) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-08 10:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL AWAY FROM LAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY MORNING... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 the center of Eugene was located near 12.9, -112.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eugene Public Advisory Number 3
2017-07-08 10:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 ...EUGENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL AWAY FROM LAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 112.1W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 112.1 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eugene is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-07-08 10:31:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 112.1W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 112.1W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.7N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.9N 114.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.4N 115.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 116.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 121.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.1N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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