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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-12 10:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120831 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 Deep convection has increased a little near the center of Melissa during the past few hours, likely because it has moved over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream current. However, convection is quite limited elsewhere. An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 40 kt in the northwestern quadrant. However, this pass did not completely capture the entire circulation, so the initial intensity is held at 45 kt given that stronger winds could exist in the regions not sampled. This intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with the latest satellite estimates as well. Melissa is expected to resume weakening later today due to a combination of an increase in westerly wind shear and intrusions of dry air. The cyclone will likely degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours when the system is forecast to be over SSTs of 23 to 24 C. The remnant low is expected to linger for at least a couple of days before it is absorbed within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global models. The subtropical storm has turned northeastward during the last several hours, with the initial motion estimated to be 055/6 kt. The weakening system is expected to become more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies during the next few days, and as a result, a turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast, taking the cyclone away from the Mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coastline. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Gale-force winds that extend from Nova Scotia eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast today, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coasts around times of high tide today. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 38.1N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 38.4N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 39.6N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 40.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 41.6N 47.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-10-12 10:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 120831 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-10-12 10:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120830 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 68.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 180SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..780NE 120SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 68.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.4N 66.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 39.6N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 40.3N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.6N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Graphics
2019-10-12 04:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 02:35:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 02:35:23 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-12 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120234 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 Although Melissa's convection hasn't been very deep for much of the day, there has been a slight cooling of cloud tops during the past few hours. This could possibly be due to the system's center now moving over the core of the Gulf Stream current, where water temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. There has also been sporadic lightning strikes observed within the convection to the north of the center. Despite this, the latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical classification from TAFB is ST2.5/35 kt, and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate from a few hours ago was 44 kt. Based on these data, Melissa's winds are lowered to 45 kt. Melissa is moving a little faster and now toward the southeast, or 125/6 kt. Although Melissa and its parent upper-level low are cut off from the mid-latitude westerlies, a ridge currently located over the Appalachian Mountains is expected to flatten on Saturday, causing westerly flow to become established and force Melissa out to sea. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate eastward starting on Saturday and continuing into early next week. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast on this cycle. Melissa's journey across the warm Gulf Stream waters will be short lived, only lasting for about 12 hours, and upper-level westerly winds will be increasing over the system significantly on Saturday. Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, with the NHC intensity forecast more or less mirroring the guidance provided by the GFS and ECMWF global models. Melissa is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The remnant low is likely to be absorbed within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic by day 4. Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Gale-force winds that extend from the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast overnight and on Saturday, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coasts on Saturday around times of high tide. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 37.7N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 37.8N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 38.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 38.5N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 39.0N 58.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 40.4N 50.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Berg
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