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Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-10-13 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 132040 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-10-13 22:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 132039 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 58.8W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 58.8W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 40.5N 55.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.4N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.9N 43.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 41.7N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 58.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
2019-10-13 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 14:35:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2019 14:35:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-10-13 16:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 131434 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 After an overnight convective hiatus, likely due to Melissa passing over a narrow band of cold water, deep convection has increased near the center and a curved band of broken convection has developed in the eastern semicircle. A 12Z TAFB shear pattern satellite intensity estimate resulted in 45 kt while the curved band pattern produced 35 kt. An average of these estimates yields 40 kt, which is close to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates of 44 kt and 43 kt, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 40 kt. Melissa is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward and the initial motion estimate is now 075/15 kt. A further increase in forward speed combined with an eastward motion is expected over the next couple of days as Melissa moves around the northern periphery of the deep-layer Bermuda-Azores high. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, Melissa is forecast to turn toward the east-southeast as a weakening extratropical low pressure system. The new NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the right of the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the tightly-packed consensus guidance envelope. The westerly wind shear across Melissa is currently around 20 kt and the cyclone is moving over sub-25 degree C sea-surface temperatures (SST). Water temperatures ahead of the cyclone are forecast to decrease to 21-22 deg C within 12 hours, while the shear is expected to increase to 25-30 kt. The combination of these two negative factors will result in weakening by this evening, which will continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, with Melissa becoming a post-tropical remnant by Monday and merging with a frontal system or larger extratropical low by Wednesday. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 39.8N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 40.5N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 41.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0000Z 41.9N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1200Z 41.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
2019-10-13 16:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 13 the center of Melissa was located near 39.8, -60.9 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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