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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-09-13 23:11:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132110 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 Ian continues to be sheared, and the low-level center is estimated to be near the southern edge of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Since there has been no appreciable increase in the organization of the tropical cyclone, the advisory intensity is held at 40 kt, which is the mean of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Given that the shear is forecast to remain strong enough to inhibit strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, with some relaxation thereafter, the official intensity forecast shows some slow strengthening beginning tomorrow night. The official forecast is in good agreement with the latest LGEM guidance. In 72 hours, the global models predict the cyclone to have a frontal structure over the north Atlantic, so the official forecast shows Ian as extratropical by that time. The storm has sped up a bit, and the initial motion is now near 340/14 kt. Over the next day or so, Ian will continue to move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. Later, when the cyclone moves into the mid-latitude westerlies, a shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Ian to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward. The official track forecast is faster than the previous one, but not quite as fast as the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions. This is close to the multi-model consensus and the FSU Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 27.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 29.1N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 31.8N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 34.5N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 37.5N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 48.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/1800Z 58.0N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1800Z 64.5N 8.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-13 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Sep 2016 20:34:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Sep 2016 20:33:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-09-13 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 132033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 2100 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-13 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 13 the center of IAN was located near 27.0, -52.7 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 6
2016-09-13 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 ...IAN MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 52.7W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 346 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 52.7 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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