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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-08-29 10:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290839 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 39.3N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.3N 64.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 71.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Erin Graphics
2019-08-29 04:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 02:39:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 03:31:40 GMT
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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-08-29 04:38:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290238 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new convection has developed around the center of Erin's circulation over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to baroclinic processes. Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt. The cyclone is expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 35.6N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Erin (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 35.6, -72.1 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Erin Public Advisory Number 10
2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 72.1W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 72.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday and then become absorbed by a larger low pressure system on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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