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Tropical Storm Erin Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-08-28 10:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280832 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery and recent microwave overpasses show that Erin's surface center has once again become exposed to the north of a rather amorphous deep convective mass. Erin's severely tilted structure is in response to persistent moderate west-northwesterly shear, indicated in the UW-CIMSS shear product. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. A series of microwave images during the past several hours indicate that the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/5 kt, within the mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching the northeastern United States, and the Bermuda high to east-southeast. A turn toward the north while accelerating is forecast later today and Erin is expected to reach Nova Scotia, with a north-northeastward heading, by the end of the week. Only a minor adjustment, a bit slower than the previous advisory, was made in order to hedge closer to the TVCA multi-model consensus. Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show that the shear should diminish somewhat today while the system remains over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. This, should allow for some slight strengthening at that time. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough and significantly decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause Erin to acquire extratropical characteristics, and complete the transition in 36 hours, as the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast and global models unanimously predict. Minor adjustments were made to the forecast wind radii based on the RVCN consensus radii model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 32.4N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 36.6N 70.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 40.7N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 45.3N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2019-08-28 10:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 280831 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Tropical Storm Erin (AT1/AL062019)

2019-08-28 10:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 32.5, -72.4 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Erin Public Advisory Number 7

2019-08-28 10:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280831 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 72.4W ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 72.4 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn northward later today then north-northeastward early Thursday morning with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but then gradually weaken Thursday as it completes a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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