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Tropical Storm Erin Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-08-28 04:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280239 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Over the past several hours, the deep convection associated with the cyclone has been developing progressively closer to the center of circulation. And, at the time of this advisory the convection is now covering a portion of the previously exposed low-level center. A late morning scatterometer pass showed winds just over 30 kt over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Since that time, the improved convective pattern has resulted in an increase in the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, indicating an initial intensity of 35 kt. Erin is still undergoing northerly shear, but possibly a little less now than it had been battling for the past couple of days. Little change in environmental conditions are expected over the next 36 hours, so some slight strengthening could occur during that time. After 24 hours, Erin will begin to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. This should cause the storm to gradually acquire extratropical characteristics, and by 48 hours Erin is expected to have completed extratropical transition. Erin continues to meander, with an initial motion of 270/3 kt. The approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to induce a northward motion of Erin tonight and then accelerate the storm to the northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the official forecast is close to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. On this track, Erin will remain well offshore of the United States coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 31.9N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 33.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 36.0N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 39.4N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 43.7N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Erin (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-28 04:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Erin was located near 31.9, -72.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Erin Public Advisory Number 6
2019-08-28 04:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 72.1W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 72.1 West. Erin is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is expected to begin moving northward tonight and northeastward Wednesday and Wednesday night with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, but then it should begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday through Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-08-28 04:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 280238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) X(30) X(30) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
Tropical Storm Erin Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-08-28 04:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280238 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 72.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 72.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.1N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.0N 71.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.4N 68.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 72.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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