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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-28 22:55:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 259 WTPZ45 KNHC 282055 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 Rosa's appearance has rapidly deteriorated since this morning. There is still evidence of an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, and an apparent moat region has occasionally been apparent in conventional satellite data during the past several hours. The slow motion of the hurricane since last night could also be causing upwelling that would lead to further weakening. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have dropped substantially accordingly, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Rosa is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of 325/5 kt. The model spread has increased a little, with the GFS and its associated regional models showing a slightly right (southeast) track, compared to earlier cycles, while the ECMWF has shifted an equal amount to the left (northwest). The consensus models have not changed much as a result of these offsetting model trends, so almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Rosa is still expected to turn northward, and then north-northeastward ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. The cyclone should then accelerate a little as it approaches the northern coast of the Baja California peninsula early next week. At this point, the structure of Rosa has degraded to the point that substantial restrengthening appears unlikely. Since the hurricane still has about 24-36 hours before it reaches much cooler SSTs, only gradual weakening is forecast, though most of the intensity guidance shows more rapid weakening than currently indicated. After that time, a more rapid rate of weakening could occur due to cooler SSTs and an increase in wind shear associated with an upper-level trough approaching from the west. By early next week, Rosa is forecast to move inland over northern Baja California, and its surface circulation will likely dissipate shortly thereafter. However, moisture associated with Rosa is expected to spread northeastward through parts of the southwest United States. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. Key Messages: 1. Rosa could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula in a few days. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Rosa or its remnants is expected to affect parts of the southwest United States by early next week, which could cause flooding in this region. For more information about potential rainfall and flooding, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 17.7N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.3N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-28 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 the center of Rosa was located near 17.7, -117.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 15
2018-09-28 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 878 WTPZ35 KNHC 282054 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 ...ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 117.8W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.8 West. Rosa is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is anticipated over the next few days, and Rosa could become a tropical storm by the end of the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and southern California late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-09-28 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 903 FOPZ15 KNHC 282054 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) X(19) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 10(30) X(30) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 120W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 16 57(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 120W 50 3 13(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 22(31) 8(39) X(39) X(39) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-09-28 22:53:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 674 WTPZ25 KNHC 282053 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.3N 114.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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