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Tropical Storm Nate Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-10-06 11:17:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 09:17:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nate Graphics
2017-10-06 10:48:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 08:48:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 09:25:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-10-06 10:43:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060843 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 An Air Force plane fixed the center of Nate as it was moving back over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras a few hours ago. The minimum central pressure was estimated at 999 mb, and a combination of flight-level and the SFMR winds yield an intensity of 40 kt. The surface circulation is broad, and the strongest winds are within a cyclonically curved band in the eastern semicircle. Radar from Honduras also helped to track the center when the cyclone was over Honduras. Nate is moving toward the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and within an environment of light shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening through the next 48 hours, and Nate is expected to be a Category one hurricane by the time it is close to the U.S. coast. The interaction with the Yucatan peninsula, however, could halt the strengthening temporarily in the 12 to 24 hour period. Once Nate moves inland over the U.S., weakening is anticipated and the cyclone most likely will dissipate by the end of the forecast period. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is sandwiched between a large cyclonic gyre over Central America and a developing subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This flow pattern should steer Nate on the same general north-northwest track with a marked increase in forward speed for the next 2 days. After that time, Nate should be on the northern edge of the subtropical high and become steered toward the northeast by the mid-latitude westerly flow. The confidence in the track forecast is high since most of the reliable guidance have come to a very good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least for the next 2 to 3 days. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through tonight. 2. There is a possibility that Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. 3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Saturday or Sunday morning as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, are in effect for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 19.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 26.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 29.3N 89.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 36.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0600Z 40.5N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Nate Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-10-06 10:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 08:43:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-10-06 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 060842 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0900 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) X(38) X(38) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) X(44) X(44) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 25(53) X(53) X(53) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 23(55) X(55) X(55) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 16(16) 19(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 26(70) X(70) X(70) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 48(55) 18(73) X(73) X(73) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 49(57) 14(71) X(71) X(71) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 52(69) 9(78) X(78) X(78) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 6(37) X(37) X(37) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 44(44) 32(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 45(53) 9(62) X(62) X(62) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 23(23) 33(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 11 63(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) COZUMEL MX 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 10 29(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) HAVANA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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