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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)

2015-10-23 07:30:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... As of 12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 the center of PATRICIA was located near 16.5, -105.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 892 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 185 mph.

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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 13

2015-10-23 07:30:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230530 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1230 AM CDT...0530 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 105.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1230 AM CDT (0530 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 105.3 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 892 mb (26.34 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas early today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late today. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 13

2015-10-23 07:30:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0530 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 230530 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0530 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.3W AT 23/0530Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.3W AT 23/0530Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics

2015-10-23 05:06:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 02:38:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 03:06:30 GMT

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-10-23 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230240 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat, with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed. After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains. The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an initial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to better reflect the latest consensus guidance. Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area overnight or early Friday. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning late tonight and continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST 36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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