je.st

Home › patricia

Tag: patricia

Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2015-10-23 04:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230238 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 1 46(47) 33(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAN BLAS 50 X 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAN BLAS 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 2 86(88) 8(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) P VALLARTA 50 X 37(37) 33(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) P VALLARTA 64 X 17(17) 28(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 32 65(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 62(62) 5(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 34(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MANZANILLO 34 25 65(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MANZANILLO 50 X 35(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MANZANILLO 64 X 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 31(32) 13(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number speed wind patricia

Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)

2015-10-23 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 the center of PATRICIA was located near 16.2, -105.1 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 924 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Tags: summary patricia hurricane

Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 12

2015-10-23 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 105.1 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Friday afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While Patricia is expected to weaken some on Friday, it is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas overnight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number public advisory patricia

Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 12

2015-10-23 04:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 230237 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 105.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number advisory patricia forecast