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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-21 23:14:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 20:57:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 21:06:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-10-21 23:05:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212105 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Patricia has become much better organized since this morning. The aircraft reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt about 15 n mi southeast of the center along with surface wind estimates of 50-55 kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 995 mb. Based on this information the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. The storm has continued to accelerate, possibly aided be some reformation of the center, and the initial motion is now 275/14. Other than this, the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory still looks good. The tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After 12-24 hours, Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. While the model guidance remains in excellent agreement with this scenario, there has been a westward shift since the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also adjusted westward. However, the new forecast track is a little to the east of the center of the guidance envelope. Now that Patricia has become better organized, it should strengthen for the next 48 hours or so until a combination of increasing shear and land interaction halts intensification. The intensity guidance is forecasting a stronger peak intensity than previously, and the new intensity forecast is adjusted upward accordingly. The new forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. However, some of the models continue to forecast a stronger peak intensity, and it is possible that Patricia could rapidly intensify into a stronger system than currently forecast. After landfall, Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western Mexico. The current forecast track requires a hurricane warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.1N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-10-21 22:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 212052 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 41(51) X(51) X(51) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 37(62) X(62) X(62) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 39(55) 20(75) X(75) X(75) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 19(38) X(38) X(38) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 38(56) 17(73) X(73) X(73) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 17(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) L CARDENAS 34 2 10(12) 16(28) 10(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 10(13) 8(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ACAPULCO 34 5 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) P MALDONADO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 30(39) X(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-21 22:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NOAA PLANE FINDS PATRICIA STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 the center of PATRICIA was located near 13.1, -99.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 6
2015-10-21 22:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 212052 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...NOAA PLANE FINDS PATRICIA STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 99.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 99.5 West. Patricia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should be near the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas by late Thursday or early Friday, and possible within the tropical storm watch area by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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