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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 16

2015-10-23 23:03:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232103 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured 192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall, with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt, and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours, if not sooner. Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to the left of the center after that time. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. 3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the center - about 15 miles across. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2015-10-23 23:00:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232100 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 165 KTS...190 MPH...305 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SAN BLAS 50 21 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN BLAS 64 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) P VALLARTA 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MANZANILLO 64 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)

2015-10-23 22:59:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 the center of PATRICIA was located near 18.9, -105.2 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 900 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 190 mph.

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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 16

2015-10-23 22:59:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232059 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 105.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...190 MPH...305 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to El Roblito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 105.2 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should make landfall during the next several hours on the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. After landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Patricia has weakened a little during the past few hours and that maximum sustained winds are near 190 mph (305 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. After landfall, Patricia is forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter Data is 900 mb (26.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should spread across the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, with the worst conditions occurring near where the eye of Patricia makes landfall. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and this evening. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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