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Tropical Storm NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-09-05 16:43:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 051442 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 8 80(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 54(54) 13(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 20(20) 11(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAN JOSE CABO 34 8 79(87) 9(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 49(49) 14(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 13(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LA PAZ 34 4 37(41) 52(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) LA PAZ 50 X 6( 6) 53(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LORETO 34 X 7( 7) 58(65) 17(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) LORETO 50 X X( X) 25(25) 19(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) LORETO 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 14(37) X(37) X(37) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 11(42) X(42) X(42) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 34(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 9(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 9(10) 24(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 4 11(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 34 58 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MAZATLAN 34 12 9(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 34 18 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 34 29 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 30 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MANZANILLO 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 40 14(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-05 16:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 14:43:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 14:42:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-09-05 16:43:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 051442 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO CORTES TO NORTH OF SANTE FE ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS AND ON THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO BAHIA KINO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * MAZATLAN TO SOUTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA * NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.0W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.0W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.6N 108.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.1N 111.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 120SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-05 13:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 11:48:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 09:06:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-05 13:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEWTON HEADING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 6:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 5 the center of NEWTON was located near 18.3, -106.3 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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