je.st
news
Tag: newton
Tropical Storm NEWTON Public Advisory Number 3A
2016-09-05 13:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051147 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 600 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 ...NEWTON HEADING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 106.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes * north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * north of La Paz to San Evaristo * north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of San Evaristo to Santa Rosalia * north of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos * Mazatlan to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 106.3 West. Newton is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will be near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning or afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours or so, and Newton could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the extreme southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern coast of Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch areas by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday night. These rains could produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Newton are expected to increase near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-05 11:16:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 09:08:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 09:06:43 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
newton
Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-05 10:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050857 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 Newton appears to be gradually strengthening. The tropical storm is producing a large area of deep convection, which is a little better organized than it was several hours ago. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are close to 3.0/45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed estimate is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center has been challenging to locate overnight, but it appears that Newton is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move northwestward at a faster pace during the next day or two while it tracks along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. A turn to the north is expected beyond a couple of days when Newton rounds the ridge and moves into a pronounced weakness. The track guidance has shifted a little to the west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The new NHC forecast brings the center of Newton very close to the extreme southern Baja California peninsula in 24 to 36 hours. Low shear, a moist environment, and very warm water should allow Newton to steadily strengthen until it reaches the Baja California peninsula. In fact, rapid intensification is a possibility as the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the winds during the next 24 hours. Based on the expected conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the guidance during the next day or two. After Newton passes the Baja peninsula, weakening should occur due to land interaction and an increase in vertical wind shear. Based on the latest forecast, the Government of Mexico has extended the watches and warnings northward along the Baja California coastlines and the west coast of mainland Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.9N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 19.2N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 07/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 08/0600Z 31.2N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-09-05 10:57:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050857 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 24(25) 59(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 44(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 22(23) 55(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 37(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 7( 7) 48(55) 24(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 14(14) 24(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 53(62) 9(71) X(71) X(71) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) X(42) X(42) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) X(46) X(46) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 35(57) X(57) X(57) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 26(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 20(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 19(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MAZATLAN 34 1 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 6 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 3 38(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 110W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-05 10:56:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEWTON STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 5 the center of NEWTON was located near 17.9, -106.1 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
newton
Sites : [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] next »