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Summary for Hurricane NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)

2016-09-07 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CENTER OF NEWTON MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 the center of NEWTON was located near 27.3, -112.0 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane NEWTON Public Advisory Number 10

2016-09-07 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 ...CENTER OF NEWTON MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 112.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Puerto San Andresito. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and has extended the Tropical Storm Warning south to Loreto. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northwest coast of mainland Mexico south of Topolobampo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guaymas to Puerto Libertad A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos * Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Topolobampo to Guaymas For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. In the southwestern United States, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office for information on possible heavy rains, flooding, and high winds. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 112.0 West. Newton is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will move across the Gulf of California tonight and make landfall along the coast of northwestern Mexico in the hurricane warning area early Wednesday. After landfall, the center of Newton will move inland over northwestern Mexico and move into southeastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in northwestern Mexico early Wednesday, with rapid weakening expected afterward. Newton is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm shortly after landfall and dissipate by early Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). A wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h) was recently reported in Topolobampo. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday morning, and preparations to protect life and property should be complete. Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading northward tonight within the warning area in northwestern Mexico. For the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions will gradually subside during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions could spread into portions of southeastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 4 to 8 inches over northern Sinaloa and Sonora states through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico through Thursday. In all of these locations, heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the track of the center within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Elsewhere, elevated water levels are expected in areas of onshore wind. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, but will begin to subside on Wednesday. Large swells are occurring along the coast of Baja California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of California tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2016-09-07 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070231 PWSEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) HERMOSILLO 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BAHIA KINO 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BAHIA KINO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUAYMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUAYMAS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LOS MOCHIS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Advisory Number 10

2016-09-07 04:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070230 TCMEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH TO LORETO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUAYMAS TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 112.0W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 200SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 112.0W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.8N 111.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.7N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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