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Tropical Storm Ramon Graphics
2017-10-04 17:05:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 15:05:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 15:05:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-10-04 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 First light visible satellite imagery show that the system is not very well organized with little evidence of banding features. However, radar images from Puerto Angel Mexico do depict some rainbands over the western portion of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. Ramon is experiencing strong easterly shear associated with a large anticyclone centered near the Texas/Mexico border. The dynamical model guidance indicate only a slight lessening of this shear over the next few days, so only slight strengthening seems possible. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus. The center is difficult to locate, but my best guess of the initial motion is 285/6 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to persist, which should cause a mostly westward track over the next several days. The official forecast is a little to the north of the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track model guidance. There is a fairly large spread in the models so this forecast is of low confidence. Although the center of Ramon is expected to remain offshore, the northward adjustment of the track forecast requires the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Mexican coast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ramon (EP4/EP192017)
2017-10-04 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Ramon was located near 14.9, -96.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ramon Public Advisory Number 2
2017-10-04 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 96.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Puerto Angel to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 96.5 West. Ramon is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a generally westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but remain offshore of, the coast of southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Ramon is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca and coastal Guerrero through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ramon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-10-04 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM RAMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 40(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 100W 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 2(20) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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