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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-11 10:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 08:57:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 09:22:11 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 48
2018-09-11 10:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 510 WTNT41 KNHC 110856 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 Recent satellite imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become cloud filled and an earlier 0441 UTC microwave overpass revealed a double eyewall structure. These observations suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is likely underway. Subjective and objective Dvorak current intensity numbers have not changed so the initial intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is en route to the storm and should provide a better assessment of Florence's structure and intensity this morning. NOAA buoy 41049 located about 80 nmi north of the eye, has reported tropical-storm-force winds during the last several hours and seas as high as 23 ft. Florence's upper-level environment is predicted to remain quite favorable while the storm traverses sea surface temperatures of around 29C over the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is forecast during this time, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles. The updated NHC intensity forecast once again calls for additional intensification and brings Florence to near category 5 strength within the next 24 to 36 hours. After 48 hours, a slight increase in southwesterly shear could result in some weakening, but Florence is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the U.S. coastline. Florence has accelerated as anticipated and is now moving west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Bermuda is expected steer Florence quickly west-northwestward to northwestward toward the southeast United States coast over the next 2 to 3 days. By 72 hours, a high pressure ridge building over the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes regions is forecast to cause a significant reduction in Florence's forward speed and the hurricane is predicted to meander over the eastern portions of North or South Carolina at days 4 and 5. The ECMWF has trended slower this cycle at days 4 and 5, and as a result the NHC forecast shows slightly less motion at those time periods. The spread in the guidance increases by 72 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean along the right side of the guidance, while the ECMWF remains along the left edge. It should be noted that there are still a number of ECMWF members that are even farther left. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left and is close to the TVCN consensus aid. Given the amount of uncertainty by day 3, it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches have been issued for a portion of the coast of South and North Carolina. Additional watches may be required later today. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of this area. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 26.4N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 30.5N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 34.3N 77.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-11 10:55:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 08:55:44 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-11 10:55:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 08:55:44 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2018-09-11 10:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 955 FONT11 KNHC 110855 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 4(23) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 4(23) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 4(28) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 4(30) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 2(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) 3(35) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 19(34) 5(39) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 17(35) 5(40) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 23(38) 6(44) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 25(53) 6(59) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 29(58) 7(65) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 22(60) 5(65) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 3(23) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 22(62) 4(66) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 20(62) 4(66) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 3(25) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 21(76) 4(80) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 4(38) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 28(55) 5(60) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 27(75) 7(82) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 23(37) 3(40) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) 22(83) 5(88) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 21(48) 6(54) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 2(25) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 58(89) 4(93) 1(94) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 7(57) 2(59) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 6(31) 2(33) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) 19(81) 4(85) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 19(44) 4(48) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 1(25) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 21(39) 4(43) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 76(86) 8(94) 2(96) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 17(74) 3(77) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 14(49) 3(52) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 61(96) 2(98) 1(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 72(76) 7(83) 2(85) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 9(59) 2(61) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 65(96) 2(98) 1(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 73(76) 9(85) 2(87) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 11(62) 2(64) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 77(86) 6(92) 2(94) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 13(73) 3(76) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 16(51) 3(54) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 75(82) 8(90) 2(92) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 15(68) 3(71) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 15(44) 3(47) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 67(87) 5(92) 1(93) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 9(69) 2(71) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 10(45) 2(47) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 18(60) 4(64) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) 2(25) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) 3(37) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 62(67) 12(79) 2(81) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 13(45) 3(48) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) 3(27) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 61(70) 9(79) 1(80) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 10(43) 2(45) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 2(23) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 15(60) 2(62) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 2(24) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 14(39) 3(42) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) 2(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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