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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 45
2018-09-10 16:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 689 WTNT41 KNHC 101450 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more accurate estimate. The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F. In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity. During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again, estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well- defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-10 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:50:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 15:22:13 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2018-09-10 16:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 232 FONT11 KNHC 101448 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 3(23) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 4(30) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 3(29) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 6(43) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 5(50) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 59(65) 6(71) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 5(29) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 38(48) 4(52) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 4(53) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 3(52) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 41(60) 3(63) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 61(67) 6(73) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 4(32) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 64(77) 5(82) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 4(45) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 59(78) 5(83) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 3(46) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 62(62) 18(80) 1(81) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 16(37) 2(39) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 61(84) 4(88) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 51(57) 4(61) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 2(35) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) 6(60) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) 37(89) 1(90) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 43(61) 2(63) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 2(36) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 76(76) 17(93) X(93) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 29(66) 1(67) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 23(39) 2(41) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 76(76) 18(94) X(94) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 33(69) 1(70) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 28(43) 2(45) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 35(92) 2(94) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 48(70) 2(72) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 40(49) 2(51) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) 39(91) 2(93) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 53(72) 2(74) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) 2(50) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 73(73) 21(94) X(94) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 38(75) 2(77) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 39(55) 2(57) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 57(74) 3(77) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 3(40) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 5(52) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 42(85) 2(87) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 45(59) 2(61) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 2(40) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 30(84) 2(86) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 39(56) 2(58) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 3(37) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 45(72) 2(74) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 3(41) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 36(50) 3(53) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 4(35) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 4(31) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-10 16:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Florence was located near 25.0, -60.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 45
2018-09-10 16:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 092 WTNT31 KNHC 101448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 60.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur late Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is anticipated, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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