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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 36
2018-09-08 10:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 151 WTNT41 KNHC 080845 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 Although Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone, satellite imagery during the past 6 h also indicates that the shear has started to abate somewhat, which has allowed the dense cirrus canopy to build back over the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Furthermore, deep convection with overshooting cloud tops near -80C and an abundance of lightning activity have developed very close to the center. Based on these data along with Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 265/8 kt. The mid-latitude flow across CONUS and the northern Atlantic is forecast to flatten out and become more zonal over the next 48 h or so, resulting in the development of a narrow east-west oriented ridge along 35/36N latitude. This large-scale feature is expected to steer Florence in a general westward direction during that time. By days 3-5, however, the flow across the central and western U.S. is forecast to buckle and become more meridional as a deep mid-/upper-level trough over the northeast Pacific pushes inland over the western U.S., causing downstream ridging over the northeastern U.S. and northwestern Atlantic. The global models agree on this general change in the synoptic-scale flow pattern, but they differ noticeably on where a downstream mid-/upper-level high pressure cell takes up residence over the Atlantic either to the northwest or northeast of Bermuda. The farther west/east the high develops will determine how far west/east Florence will eventually move and possibly affect the U.S. east coast beyond the 5-day forecast period. The new official forecast track is close to the previous advisory track through 48 h, and then was nudged a little to the left or west of the previous track, which is close to the consensus model TVCN and is north of the corrected-consensus models FSSE and HCCA since the bulk of the NHC model guidance lies north of those latter two models. The upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly during the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of southwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10 kt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory in anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions developing, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday and a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional strengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg C that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus models IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little below the FSSE model. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-08 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Florence was located near 24.5, -54.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2018-09-08 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 046 FONT11 KNHC 080845 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 36
2018-09-08 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 072 WTNT31 KNHC 080845 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...FLORENCE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 54.2W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 9 mph (14 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple days. A west- northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by early next week and continue into middle part of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual restrengthening is forecast over the weekend, and Florence is expected to become a hurricane again by Sunday and a major hurricane early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 36
2018-09-08 10:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 843 WTNT21 KNHC 080844 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.2W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.2W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 54.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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