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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-08 04:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 02:53:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 03:22:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 35
2018-09-08 04:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 331 WTNT41 KNHC 080251 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the low-level center is partially exposed on the southwesterly edge of a large convective mass, with the overall circulation somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast. A blend of the latest Dvorak wind speed estimates from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS SATCON gives a value of 50 kt for this advisory. While the winds at 200 mb are already from an easterly direction near the center of Florence, there is significant shear from northwesterly winds from 300-500 mb, undercutting the outflow layer. This shear is forecast to relax by the global models over the next 36 hours as an anticyclone builds to the north of the storm, which should promote some strengthening by Sunday. After 48 hours, the deep-layer flow becomes easterly near the cyclone, with very little shear while the system is over very warm waters. This pattern favors significant intensification, and most of the guidance brings Florence back to a category 4 hurricane in 4 or 5 days. The intensity forecast is very similar to the last one, and is raised slightly at days 3 and 4 to come into better agreement with the guidance. It is interesting to note that even with a lower initial intensity, the guidance is higher than the last cycle, which speaks to the strength of the signal for intensification in the long range. The initial motion estimate is 265 degrees at 6 kt. Florence is expected to continue moving slowly westward for the next 48 hours under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge is forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S. and build westward, keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory with a notable increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall guidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official forecast is moved in that direction. Unfortunately with such a large well-defined steering current from the ridge becoming likely, the extended-range risk to the United States keeps rising, which is confirmed by the majority of the latest ensemble guidance. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 24.8N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 54.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.7N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 24.7N 56.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.0N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 25.8N 62.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 27.5N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 30.5N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2018-09-08 04:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 197 FONT11 KNHC 080251 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-08 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Florence was located near 24.8, -53.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 35
2018-09-08 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 325 WTNT31 KNHC 080250 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 ...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 53.2W ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 53.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A west- northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the early-to-middle part of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend. Florence is forecast to become a hurricane again Sunday and a major hurricane early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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