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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-06 22:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 20:46:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 21:22:05 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 30
2018-09-06 22:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 111 WTNT41 KNHC 062044 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 Vertical shear has taken its toll on Florence today as evidenced by a continued degradation of the overall cloud pattern. The circulation appears tilted, with the low-level center partially exposed to the southwest of the deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers have fallen, and a blend of the various estimates supports an initial intensity of 70 kt. The intensity forecast is relatively straightforward in the short-term as shear is expected to remain strong, which should continue Florence's weakening trend, potentially taking the system below hurricane strength. By 24 hours, vertical shear is forecast to decrease, and the SSTs gradually warm along the forecast track. Assuming the overall circulation remains intact, Florence shouldn't have any problems restrengthening beginning in a day or so. In fact, guidance suggests that Florence could once again become a major hurricane in 4 or 5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is only adjusted to account for recent trends. Largely, the official forecast is close to the various consensus aids. Owing to the degraded structure and tilted nature of the system, Florence has wobbled a bit to the west, but the longer-term motion estimate is 305/09. Low- to mid-level ridging should cause Florence to turn toward the west-northwest and west between 12-48 hours while the cyclone recovers from the strong shear. Thereafter, Florence is anticipated to become a deep cyclone again, but an even stronger ridge should maintain the west-northwestward motion, at a faster speed, through day 5. The ridge is forecast to be sufficiently strong such that some track models show a motion just south of due west during the next 12-36 hours. Beyond day 3, the track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to differing evolutions of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic. While all of the global models show a progressive trough eroding the ridge, they differ in the strength of the trough and the ridge to the north of Florida. These differences result in a great deal of bifurcation in the track guidance, especially among global model ensemble members, at the end of the forecast period. In such situations, prudence suggests a reliance on continuity, and the the new official NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly south towards the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA. It is important to note that deterministic track models in these types of situations often display considerable run-to-run changes, and the uncertainty in this forecast remains larger than normal. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week. 3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.0N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 25.5N 53.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 25.6N 54.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 26.4N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 30.0N 67.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Rhome
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2018-09-06 22:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 897 FONT11 KNHC 062043 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG/RHOME
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-06 22:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE CLINGING TO HURRICANE STATUS... ...EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 6 the center of Florence was located near 25.0, -49.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 30
2018-09-06 22:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 218 WTNT31 KNHC 062043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 ...FLORENCE CLINGING TO HURRICANE STATUS... ...EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 49.6W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 49.6 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn towards the west is expected tomorrow. A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next day or so followed by restrengthening late Friday into this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Rhome
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