je.st
news
Tag: florence
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 66
2018-09-15 22:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 707 WTNT41 KNHC 152052 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 Florence's center has continued its slow...and I do mean s-l-o-w... westward trek across eastern South Carolina, with little change in the overall structure of the wind field both overland and over water. NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar data, surface observations, and a 1527Z ASCAT pass indicate that Florence is still producing a significant fetch of tropical storm force winds within and adjacent to the the two bands of convection that are currently located between the Cape Fear/Wilmington area and Bogue Inlet, North Carolina. The ASCAT pass contained numerous 40-45 kt wind vectors, and the NOAA NOS observing site at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, has been reporting sustained winds of 38-41 kt and gusts to 46-48 kt during the past few hours during the passage of light to moderate rain showers. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at a conservative 40 kt for this advisory. The estimated central pressure of 997 mb is based on nearby surface observations across eastern South Carolina. The initial motion remains 270/02 kt. The new 12Z model guidance remains in excellent agreement on a mid-level ridge currently to the northwest and north of Florence moving steadily eastward during the next 48 hours, which will keep the broad cyclone moving slowly westward to west-northwestward during that time. By 48 hours and beyond, the ridge is forecast to continue to shift eastward to near the northeast U.S. coast and weaken, which will allow Florence and its remnant circulation to move slowly northward into the mid-latitude westerlies by Tuesday. By days 3-5, the global models diverge on where and how fast Florence's then extratropical circulation moves. Due to the significant spread in the guidance, the official forecast track lies close to the consensus model TCVA/TVCN and the previous advisory track forecast. Florence's inner-core convection and wind field will steadily weaken throughout the next 48 hours or so. However, the outer wind field and an associated band of deep convection in the eastern semicircle should continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds for another 12 hours or so over water and near the coast, with occasional strong wind gusts occurring over land. The official intensity forecast is close to an average of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM, and the IVCN consensus intensity model guidance through 72 hours, and then follows a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models at 96 and 120 hours when the post-tropical cyclone moves back over water and strengthens some due to baroclinic processes. Although coastal storm surge flooding will continue to subside tonight and Sunday, torrential rainfall will continue to be a serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence. More than two- and-a-half feet of rain has already fallen across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread farther inland through the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 2. Water levels along the coast will gradually subside through Sunday. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina today. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 33.6N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/0600Z 33.9N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 38.8N 82.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 41.4N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 43.3N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-15 22:42:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FLORENCE CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD TREK ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Florence was located near 33.6, -79.9 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
florence
Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 66
2018-09-15 22:42:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 368 WTNT31 KNHC 152042 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...CENTER OF FLORENCE CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD TREK ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Surf City, North Carolina. All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data, satellite-derived winds, and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the northeast and east of the center in heavy rainbands over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is still possible through Sunday. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro, North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has fallen so far. That rainfall total breaks the tropical cyclone rainfall record of 24.06 inches for North Carolina set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 66
2018-09-15 22:42:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 369 FONT11 KNHC 152042 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 66 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 16 X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 12 12(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBIA SC 34 19 17(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) COLUMBIA SC 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CHARLESTON SC 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 66
2018-09-15 22:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 473 WTNT21 KNHC 152041 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 66 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF SURF CITY...NORTH CAROLINA. ALL STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 82.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 41.4N 74.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.3N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] next »