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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-05-27 17:00:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271500 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 Amanda's eye has again disappeared from the infrared and first-light visible imagery from GOES-West this morning. However, microwave imagery from the TRMM and SSMI polar-orbiting satellites still indicated a small, complete eyewall was present. Using a blend of final T and Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggests an intensity of 100-105 kt, while the ADT estimate of 125 kt appears to be too high. The initial intensity is set at 105 kt, but this may be slightly too strong if the current deterioration of the convective structure continues. The initial wind radii are primarily based upon a 0518Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass. The microwave imagery fixes allow for a fairly confident assessment of the initial position and motion of Amanda. The hurricane is moving toward the north-northwest - 340 degrees - at about 5 kt, due to the steering influence of an upper- to mid-level low to its northwest and a ridge to its northeast. These features should continue to slowly advect Amanda toward the north or north-northeast for the next three days or so, before a strong northeast-southwest oriented ridge builds north of the tropical cyclone. That ridge, along with a weakening Amanda being steered by the low-level flow, should result in Amanda turning to the southwest in the latter part of the forecast period. The models are in generally good agreement with this scenario, but differ some on when the turn occurs, and thus how far to the north Amanda reaches. On the extremes, the GFS has Amanda getting farthest to the north at 21N while the UKMET only has the cyclone reaching 17N before the turn occurs. The official forecast is a blend of the farther north TVCE variable consensus technique and the farther south previous official forecast. The CIMSS analysis and the GFS-based SHIPS both indicate southerly vertical shear of about 20 kt affecting Amanda. While the shear is anticipated to diminish quite a bit by all of the dynamical models in about two days, the moisture and instability should decrease significantly at the same time. The dynamical models very quickly weaken Amanda, while the dynamical-statistical guidance shows more gradual weakening. However, it appears that the SSTs being used in SHIPS/LGEM are biased high by about 1 degree C along the track of Amanda, which would suggest that these statistical techniques are somewhat too strong. The official forecast is very similar to the IVCN variable consensus model and the previous advisory. However, if current convective trends continue and the statistical models do indeed turn out to be biased high, then this forecast may be conservative in how quickly Amanda falls apart. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.7N 112.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.8N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 16.6N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 17.5N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 18.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 18.0N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-27 17:00:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WELL WEST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue May 27 the center of AMANDA was located near 14.7, -112.3 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 20
2014-05-27 17:00:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 271500 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 ...AMANDA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WELL WEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 112.3W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-05-27 17:00:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 271500 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) 14(30) 8(38) 9(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-05-27 17:00:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 271459 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 112.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.6N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 110.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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