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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-03 09:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Nov 2018 08:38:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Nov 2018 09:21:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-11-03 09:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030836 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 A large burst of deep convection has developed over the northeastern and eastern portions of Xavier's circulation overnight. An earlier GMI microwave overpass indicated that the center was located near the southwestern edge of the convection, but there was evidence of an increase in banding over the northeastern portion of the storm. Dvorak data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T3.0, respectively, so the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt for this advisory. Xavier is expected to remain embedded within an area of moderate to strong southwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours, and these conditions are likely to prevent significant strengthening. Although the statistical guidance shows no additional intensification, the dynamical models deepen the system over the next day or so, and the NHC forecast calls for a slight increase in wind speed today, followed by little change in strength through Sunday. This is in good agreement with the latest HFIP corrected consensus model. By 48 hours the shear is expected to become even stronger, and as a result, gradual weakening should occur thereafter. Xavier is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, if not sooner. The aforementioned microwave pass was very helpful in locating the center of Xavier. Based on that data and recent satellite fixes, the initial motion estimate is east-northeastward at about 6 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Xavier should turn northeastward, then northward by tonight toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a deep-layer trough over central Mexico. After Xavier weakens, the cyclone should turn toward west-northwestward or westward as it is steered by the low-level flow. Since there is still a fair amount of spread among the track models as to how far north Xavier will move before it weakens and turns westward, the NHC track is close to the various consensus aids at 48 hours and beyond. Most of the track models have trended a little faster after 48 hours, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.7N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.2N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 16.6N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 17.5N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-03 09:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Nov 3 the center of Xavier was located near 14.7, -107.7 with movement ENE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 3
2018-11-03 09:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 030836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 ...XAVIER STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 107.7W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 107.7 West. Xavier is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower motion toward the northeast and then north is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-11-03 09:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 030836 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0900 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 9 13(22) 4(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) 1(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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